Europe, the Economy and the impact for the public sector
Hold tight…It is about to get a whole lot worse…
Those of you who have heard me speak at events during the last 12 months will know that I have signalled (on numerous occasions) the gradual dismantling of the Eurozone. In presentations as far back as May 2011 I predicted that Greece would definitely have to exit the Eurozone and that others would follow. I have steadfastly continued with that prediction (despite the bailout funds, ECB interventions and numerous Summit communiques suggesting otherwise) because of the economic research and intelligence my company, Dew Cadre has gathered.
A modern day Greek Tragedy….
In my presentations and in my book “Envisioning the next chapter of public services“ I express deep concern about the impact of such events upon our national economy and highlighted the devastating impact such global events would have on the UKs precious public services. The events over the last few days in Greece and further warning signs in Italy, Portugal, Spain and Ireland look very ominous. Once again, I say that it is no longer a question of will Greece leave the Euro but when and how will they exit. I couldn’t agree more with the Prime Minister’s comments earlier this week in Parliament that it was time to “make up or break up”.
Irrespective of who is elected following Greece’s second attempt at national elections I believe that European Leaders and probably most crucially the Market, Investors and the Rating Agencies have now lost belief in the credibility of Greece remaining inside the Eurozone. My prediction is the news will be broken imminently probably on a Friday to allow time for nations and the markets to adjust to the “seismic event” it will represent. I really hope I am wrong…!
What will this mean for our economy and our own precious public services?
We all need to hope and pray that this seismic event doesn’t result in a Global economic Tsunami and that it is contained. Even if it is contained, our finances are going to be badly affected. We are already getting a fair degree of push-back at the current austerity measures from across our public sector. However, the impact of Greece leaving will have a contagion effect on all Northern hemisphere countries and the UK, like many others, is exposed and will be adversely affected. That means slower growth, increased debt exposure and the need for even deeper efficiency savings. That means we are going to have to ramp-up our transformation effort across our public services. We are simply not doing enough, doing it fast enough, and we need far more innovation and agility in our effort to transform our public services. If we look at public services such as local government – we need to act now and go far beyond collaboration! We need to be implementing merger and amalgamation - not just sharing some services and the odd post here and there.
On Jobs and employment…. we need to think more creatively and look at “job share” rather than “job loss” in order to spread the socio-economic impact of public sector employment and protect as many families and homes as possible. Over the coming weeks and months we will publish more on Local Government Renewal and Regeneration in Wales including:
- The output of a High Impact Intervention Team tasked with developing a 21st Century Blueprint for Local Services;
- A White Paper discussion document on the subject providing fresh ideas!
These are seminal times…. Everything is about to change and we need agility and courage from our elected and executive leadership now more than ever!! And, as Citizens, we need to support and back them.
